State of the Indian Economy: A Decade in Review (2014-2023)

Executive Summary:

This report provides an overview of the Indian economy from 2014 to 2023, analyzing key economic indicators, policies, and events that shaped the nation’s growth trajectory. Despite facing numerous challenges, including demonetization, a global pandemic, and structural reforms, India has emerged as a major global player, experiencing significant economic growth and development.

1. Introduction:
India, the world’s largest democracy, has experienced rapid economic growth over the past decade, transforming itself into a key player in the global economy. This report delves into the economic progress made by India from 2014 to 2023, highlighting the policies and events that influenced its trajectory.

2. Key Economic Indicators:

2.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
India’s GDP has grown considerably from 2014 to 2023. In 2014, the GDP stood at $2.04 trillion, and by 2023, it has reached an estimated $3.42 trillion. The average GDP growth rate during this period was around 6.5%, with a notable dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2.2 Inflation:
Inflation remained relatively stable throughout the decade, averaging around 4.5%. In the initial years, inflation was primarily driven by supply-side factors, but it gradually stabilized due to effective monetary policies and structural reforms.

2.3 Unemployment:
The unemployment rate in India has been a persistent issue, with an average of 6% during the period under review. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the situation in 2020, but gradual recovery and government initiatives have helped curb the unemployment rate to around 5.5% by 2023.

2.4 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI):
India has attracted significant FDI over the past decade, increasing from $34.4 billion in 2014 to an estimated $64.3 billion in 2023. Key sectors that attracted FDI include services, telecommunications, automobile, and technology.

3. Major Policies and Reforms:

3.1 Goods and Services Tax (GST):
Implemented in 2017, GST unified multiple indirect taxes into a single tax system, reducing the tax burden on businesses and promoting economic efficiency.

3.2 Demonetization:
In November 2016, the Indian government demonetized the INR 500 and INR 1000 notes in an effort to curb black money and corruption. The move initially slowed down economic growth but eventually led to an increase in digital transactions and formalization of the economy.

3.3 Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC):
Introduced in 2016, the IBC aimed to streamline the insolvency resolution process and improve ease of doing business in India. The code has helped resolve several high-profile insolvency cases and improved India’s credit culture.

3.4 Make in India:
Launched in 2014, this initiative  was aimed to boost domestic manufacturing and create jobs , But the program could not attract significant FDI and has been a failure in contributing to the growth of the manufacturing sector.

4. The Impact of COVID-19:
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted the Indian economy, causing a contraction of 7.3% in GDP in 2020. The government implemented various relief measures to support the economy, including fiscal stimulus packages and liquidity support. By 2023, the economy has largely recovered, with growth rebounding to pre-pandemic levels.

5. Conclusion:
India has experienced substantial economic growth and development from 2014 to 2023, overcoming numerous challenges along the way. The country’s resilience and adaptability, coupled with effective policies and reforms, have been pivotal in its emergence as a major global player.


The likelihood of a recession in the foreseeable future is a topic of great concern among economic analysts and policymakers. A recession is typically defined as a significant decline in economic activity, characterized by a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), rising unemployment, and falling consumer confidence.
While it is impossible to predict with certainty whether a recession will occur in the near future, there are a number of factors that suggest that the likelihood of a recession in the foreseeable future is relatively high. These factors include slowing global economic growth, rising levels of debt among households and governments, and an increasing likelihood of trade conflicts.
One of the key factors that is often cited as a potential driver of a future recession is slowing global economic growth. Many economists have pointed to the fact that the global economy has been slowing down in recent years, with a number of major economies experiencing declining rates of growth. This slowdown has been driven by a number of factors, including demographic changes, a slowdown in productivity growth, and the impact of protectionist trade policies.
Another factor that is often cited as a potential driver of a future recession is rising levels of debt among households and governments. In many countries, levels of household debt have been rising rapidly, fueled by low interest rates and easy access to credit. At the same time, many governments have also been taking on increasing levels of debt, in order to finance spending programs and stimulate economic growth.
This rising debt burden has led to concerns that a future recession could be triggered by a sudden increase in debt defaults, as households and governments struggle to keep up with their debt payments. In addition, high levels of debt can also constrain economic growth, as households and governments are forced to divert significant portions of their income towards debt payments.
Finally, an increasing likelihood of trade conflicts is also seen as a potential driver of a future recession. In recent years, there has been a growing trend towards protectionist trade policies, with many countries implementing tariffs and other trade barriers in order to protect domestic industries. These policies can have a significant impact on global trade flows, which can in turn impact economic growth.
Overall, while it is impossible to predict with certainty whether a recession will occur in the near future, there are a number of factors that suggest that the likelihood of a recession is relatively high. These factors include slowing global economic growth, rising levels of debt among households and governments, and an increasing likelihood of trade conflicts. Policymakers will need to be vigilant in order to manage these risks and ensure that the global economy remains stable and resilient in the face of potential challenges.



The United States economy has a significant impact on the global economy due to its status as the world’s largest economy. The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and fluctuations in the US economy affect trade, capital flows, and global markets. The Indian economy is closely linked to the US economy and is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in the US economy. In this article, we will examine the impact of US inflation on the Indian equity market and assess the state of the Indian economy as of the first quarter of the financial year 2022-23.
US Inflation Impact on Indian Equity Market:
The US Federal Reserve has implemented a number of economic stimulus measures to help sustain the US economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures have led to an increase in the supply of money, which has resulted in inflation. The US inflation rate reached a 13-year high in May 2021, causing concerns about its impact on the Indian equity market.
One of the main concerns is that higher inflation in the US may lead to an increase in interest rates, making it more expensive for Indian companies to access US dollars. This could lead to a decrease in Indian exports to the US, which would have a negative impact on the Indian economy. Additionally, higher interest rates may lead to a decrease in foreign investment in the Indian equity market, leading to a decline in the value of the Indian rupee.
Furthermore, investors may redirect their investments from emerging markets such as India to the US market. This could lead to a decline in the Indian equity market, decreasing investor confidence and leading to further declines.
State of the Indian Economy:
The Indian economy has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects have continued to be felt into the first quarter of the financial year 2022-23. The Indian economy contracted by 7.3% in the financial year 2020-21, and there are concerns about the ongoing impact of the pandemic on the economy.
One of the main challenges facing the Indian economy is the high levels of unemployment and poverty. The pandemic has led to job losses in several sectors, particularly in the informal sector. This has had a significant impact on the purchasing power of consumers, which has in turn affected demand for goods and services.
Additionally, the Indian government has struggled to contain the spread of the virus, with several waves of infections and deaths. The slow pace of vaccinations has also contributed to the longer-term effects on the economy. The government is expected to provide more stimulus and support measures to help the Indian economy recover.
The impact of US inflation on the Indian economy and equity market cannot be ignored. The Indian government must take measures to address the concerns of investors and ensure that the Indian economy is well-positioned to face the challenges posed by the pandemic. At the same time, the Indian government must focus on addressing the underlying challenges facing the Indian economy, such as unemployment, poverty, and a lack of investment in infrastructure. Overall, the Indian economy has significant potential for growth and success, but it will require a concerted effort from all stakeholders to achieve these goals.


The Federal Reserve (often referred to as the Fed) is responsible for setting the interest rate in the United States. The interest rate is the cost of borrowing money and affects the economy in several ways. When the Fed raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow money. This can slow down economic growth and reduce inflation.
One of the ways that changes in the interest rate affect the stock market is through its impact on corporate profits. Higher interest rates mean that companies will have to pay more to borrow money, which can cut into their profits. This, in turn, can cause a decline in stock prices.
Another way that the Fed’s interest rate affects the stock market is through its impact on investor sentiment. When interest rates are low, investors tend to favour stocks and other investments because they can earn higher returns. When interest rates are high, investors may become more cautious and less willing to take risks, which can lead to a decline in stock prices.
It is important to note that the impact of the Fed’s interest rate on the stock market is not always straightforward. There are many factors that can influence stock prices, including company earnings, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Therefore, it is difficult to predict exactly how changes in the interest rate will affect the stock market in 2023 or any other year.
In summary, changes in the Federal Reserve interest rate can have a significant impact on the stock market. When interest rates are raised, it can reduce corporate profits and cause investors to become more cautious, leading to a decline in stock prices. However, the impact of interest rate changes on the stock market is complex and can be influenced by many factors beyond just the interest rate itself.



Before the collapse

SVB was on the radar of central bank of America (commonly referred as federal bank The fed) for more than a year. So what went wrong and why the sudden downfall couldn’t be avoided. The downfall of the bank was so swift but the demise on 10th of march 2023 can be understood . We can say it started with inflation coupled with several bad steps taken by the senior management at SVB .

Silicon Valley bank had around 17 branches across the USA with its headquarters in Santa Clara which is small city in The state of california. 

Supervisors from federal reserve bank of san Francisco issues 6 citation  which comes under “ matters requiring attention” and “matters requiring immediate attention,”   SVB had liquidity issues so in an event of emergency . By July 2022 SVB was under full supervision and was declared as not sufficient for governance and controls .


SVB Tried many ways to raise capital although what triggered panic and chaos was SVB’sale of its Treasury portfolio at a significant loss net loss of 2.2 billions of dollars due to significant rise in interest rate by The FED and its failed attempts to raise capital to allow for continued withdrawals to stabilise its balance sheet. Following the aftermath of sale of Treasury portfolio, Another attempt to sell convertible equity to raise additional Capital  was unsuccessful and even after resorting to sell the company did not materialise leading to a mammoth 60 percent decline in SVB’share price.


SVB had approximately $209 billion in total assets, with about $175.4 billion in Assets under management(deposits in this case).  SVB mostly served technology-focused companies based in Silicon Valley. The FDIC stated  on Friday that all insured depositors would have full access to their deposits no later than Monday morning.

It did not address the uninsured deposits in its initial statement which makes up more than 80% of total deposits, creating panic about their fate and the impact on the country’s  mostly tech led start-ups and in general USA’s financing ecosystem


FTX founder SAM BANKMAN FRIED got arrested in Bahamas and is expected to extradited to UNTIED STATES .  SAM BANKMAN FRIED  has admitted to fraud and using their customer’s money illegally . FTX founder secretly transferred upto 10 billions of dollars which lead to crash in crypto market upto 150 billion dollars in market valuation. Just a few months prior to the inevitable downfall of FTX, FTX looked liked a stable brokerage firm but behind the scenes it was drowning in debt . Close to 2 billions of dollars of customer’s money have vanished. So how all this saga went down 


Alameda Research which was also co-founded by SBF . SBF moved around 10 billion dollars to Alameda research which is also a crypto brokerage firm. Alameda research suffered huge losses due to absolute reckless trading .  Alameda research put up FTX tokens as collateral for the loans but it was very problematic simply because FTX tokens were not heavily traded beyond the ecosystem of FTX Environment and were hugely dependent on success or failure of FTX itself


As we know close to 2 billions dollars have vanished . ALLEGEDLY SBF DEVELOPED A CUSTOM-MADE ACCOUNTING SYSTEM TO HIDE ALL OF THE MISSING MONEY . HOWEVER MANY SKEPTICS OF FTX were ringing the alarm bell well before the collapse of FTX.


Are we heading towards recession?  

Inflation. This one word has created a state of panic in almost every sector. Provided it is been the highest recorded inflation rate in 40 Years. To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, and when the Fed starts pumping the brake to fight the inflation. As history has taught us Several times but we humans are doomed to repeat the history

Factors leading into recession

Russian Invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply-chain disruption due to China’s covid-19 zero-tolerance policy and the end of $ 5 trillion in federal pandemic aid proved to be a catalyst in the already worsening economic crisis.


Is recession inevitable

Deutsche Bank shared its concern earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to speak about forecasting, albeit a “mild” one. Now, it’s warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve’s quest to battle high inflation

.”We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.

Bueno Returns stance on the current crisis across every spectrum possible

We have been criticizing the fed’s policy from the day they doubled down on a hike in the interest rate and increased it twice in such a short span. Jerome Powell is chair of the federal bank might not be a fit person to lead the fed during the times we haven’t witnessed in many decades. We have already witnessed Fed increasing interest by half a percentage point which is the highest increase in interest rate in last the 18 years. Now many big players in the town are calling the federal bank for the same as we did in our recent articles.

 Volatile gold prices and fear of 4th wave

To understand the correlation between USD and Gold prices. first, we have to understand what drives the value of the US dollar 

Factors that Impact currency value 

1.  Falling crude prices

2.  Positive reports on job numbers

3.  Rise in Real state prices 

These are the major factors that determine the strength of dollar value. All the factors mentioned above have a proportional relation with the dollar value’s strength. There are other factors too but we only mentioned the one with the most impact on a currency mainly the USD

Although there is a direct correlation between gold prices and the value of a currency such as the US Dollar, it is not always an inverse relationship as assumed by the general public. Gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies Hedge funds often use gold to tackle inflation.

The real question is why gold prices are falling despite very high volatility in the equity market. As we witnessed when the pandemic hit in the year 2020 we witnessed a rise in the gold price even crossing over 2000 dollars per ounce so why did this time gold mcx fell almost by 8%in last 30 days, dwindling to 1811$. 



(image-courtesy of

 Volatile gold prices and fear of 4th wave 11

It is evident in the chart that after Russia’s war on Ukraine coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar, and high inflation rate, The dollar index as of the 13th of may edge higher to 104.47, making gold less attractive


Global equity markets and commodities like oil and gas were under pressure at the peak of China’s  Covid outbreak when daily cases topped around 33 thousand in a week contributing to fear of a bigger slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Recently there has been a sharp decline in the infection rate as the 7-day average infection rate has come down to 9000 covid cases.  As Shanghai comes closer to the end of the lockdown for a very short period of one week as an experiment to see how it plays out. China has a zero-tolerance policy for covid cases and a history of using draconian laws since the outbreak of covid 19


Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has Inflated oil and gas prices At the moment there seems to be no solutIon to this conflict. It will impact inflation even worse as some European countries specifically Germany is looking for an alternative oil supplier, as Germany should have realised by now that depending on the Russian regime for energy import to the extent of 60% was an extremely bad policy. There are several factors affecting the equity market. There are talks that the fed is considering an additional hike in interest rate. It’s a risky move as The fed has to keep interest rate in balance. Fed has already increased interest rate thrice. The future of the economy is very uncertain as it depends upon domestic and international outcomes

Elon musk acquires Twitter


Recent development ,3rd of may 2.15 pm IST

Elon Musk Lately has been in news, magazine, articles, and newspaper. You name it. Musk decision to buy all the shares of  Twitter. According to Musk, he has been witnessing the suppression of free speech, something on social networks a new phenomenon called cancer has poisoned the Internet,

Elon Musk has said Twitter may charge a “slight” fee for commercial and government users

“Twitter will always be free for casual users, but maybe a slight cost for commercial/government users,” Musk said in a tweet. In another tweet, he added: “Some revenue is better than none!”





Elon musk has been advocating for free speech on social media platforms. In a filing to the security exchange board (SEC), Musk wrote, “I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy,” further adding to his filing to SEC, “Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.”

In a press statement posted by Musk on his Twitter account, Musk tweeted “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated. I also want to make Twitter better than ever by enhancing the product with new features, making the algorithms open source to increase trust, defeating the spambots, and authenticating all humans. Twitter has tremendous potential – I look forward to working with the company and the community of users to unlock it,”

After weeks of hustle between Twitter’s board of directors, Elon musk finally bought Twitter for a whopping 44 Billion USD. Elon Musk has previously indicated that he wants to take Twitter private. Reportedly there have been conflicting feelings among Twitter employees.

Tesla CEO in his latest public statement said “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated ”. Musk assured the giant social media platform’s users to add new features and bring leniency to content moderation for the Platform users.


Republican lawmakers who have criticized the company over Its content moderation policy lauded  Elon Musk’s buyout of Twitter, while many Democrats shared their concern over the acquisition of Twitter.


Senator  Marsha Blackburn (Re: Tennessee.). tweeted “This is a great day to be conservative on Twitter,”. While on the other spectrum, Elizabeth Warren who has been a long time critique billionaire over taxes paid by the billionaires tweeted “it is a danger to democracy”.

  Elon musk tussle with Twitter.


es 052418 elon musk is on twitter 1527189506

Update- Friday ,22 April


In a new filing with the SEC, Musk said he has procured USD 46 billion to endow his offer of $54.20 a share.

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and several other banks have promised to lend Musk an additional $25.5 billion, against in part by some of Musk’s Tesla shares, according to the filing to SEC.

Musk averred in his filing that Twitter has not yet officially responded to his gratuitous offer. He “is seeking to negotiate a definitive agreement for the acquisition of Twitter,” stated in the filing, “and is prepared to begin such negotiations immediately.”

Elon musk CEO of Tesla Motors,  Chief of space x and the boring company  recently announced that he has bought a 9.2 per cent stake in Twitter, making him the 2nd  largest shareholder in the Company. Paras Aggarwal CEO of Twitter offered musk a seat on the board of directors but musk declined the offer. Elon musk according to his recent statements want to buy 100% of the outstanding shares of the company.

Elon musk’s take over of the company is not sitting well with the board of directors. Musk has offered to acquire Twitter for roughly 43 billion dollars which amounts to 54.20 USD per share .currently Twitter share is trading at around  45 USD. This bid has prompted Twitter to adopt

‘poison pill’ (officially known as shareholders rights plan) to prevent “hostile bid” from musk. A poison pill means when a company issues new additional stock to dilute the ownership of shareholders. Musk may also be willing to pledge his current stake if necessary, a move that could raise several billion additional dollars, according to the New York Post report. The announcement of the poison pill has been approved by the board last Friday while the stock market was closed, Twitter on Monday provided more details in a regulatory filing that no doubt it’s trying to fend off Musk’s $43 billion takeover bid.

When a poison pill is approved by the board of directors Any investor that builds up a stake up to 15 per cent without the board’s approval. If Musk were to increase his stake to the 15% threshold, then The board can grant shareholders as of April 25 the right to buy one-thousandth of a share of preferred stock for each common share they own, for $210, which will make it virtually impossible to acquire total outstanding no of shares of Twitter. Adoption of the poison pill often results in lawsuits against companies accusing that the board is acting against the interest of shareholders to keep their position.

Other private-equity firms have also expressed their interest in participating in a deal for Twitter, people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday without naming the firm.

Goldman Sachs, the prestigious investment bank has advised twitter to not approve the musk’s offer. The board has retained Goldman Sachs to advise in its tussle with Musk.  Musk has retained Morgan Stanley, a rival of Goldman Sachs, as his advisory bank.

Musk tweeted “If the current Twitter board takes actions contrary to shareholder interests, they would be breaching their fiduciary duty,” the billionaire reacted to the press articles on Twitter. “The liability they would thereby assume would be titanic in scale.”


In a recent interview with Ted talks musk stated that twitter’s algorithm must be open source as it allows transparency between the Platform and the users. He also stated in the same interview that free speech must be allowed on Twitter but hate speeches and other forms of provoking tweets that might result in violence must be moderated the real question is can we rely on AI to determine the nature of tweets.

Lately, musk seems to be very angry at the board of directors, adding to his previous statements “It would be utterly indefensible not to put this offer to a shareholder vote. They own the company, not the board of directors”


This all now has become a game of high stakes between the world’s richest man and Twitter, with this upcoming week might be an eventful one as we expect to formally hear from both the parties on their next move, With the poison pill making it harder for musk’s takeover of Twitter. It will be challenging for Musk, he may decide to withdraw his bid or make changes to his bid and exercise the still-significant influence he would have on the company as one.


es 052418 elon musk is on twitter 1527189506


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