Author: Shobhit Bhardwaj

Russian Roulette(Part-1)

On September 6,2022, Ukraine unprecedented counterattack aiming to liberate few of the territory that Russia had taken over earlier in the war or according to Putin terror regime “ Special military operation”.

On the other end of spectrum, For Ukrainian government and PRESIDENT VLOYDMR ZELENSKY , This was a matter of time rather than matter of location , The two potential target for counterattack were no brainier for Ukrainian leadership

First was Kherson which is located at the souther part of Ukraine

The second was in north ,towards outskirts of Kharkiv which is the second largest city in the country

US and BRITISH INTELLIGENCE MI6 verified Ukrainian claims of first counter attack to be very successful , Resulting liberating 7% of its occupied lands just in the initial phase of the war

So how Ukrainian army with the help of western aid in the form of sophisticated weapons and humanitarian managed to liberate around 8 thousand square miles in a matter of weeks .

Russia and its army strength that the world very very much overestimated got exposed . From cheap Chinese tyres used in tanks that Ukrainian army blew up in hundreds , To food ration for Russian soldiers which expired years ago and coupled with united Ukraine and demoralised Russian army ,it was a perfect ˇRecipe for a disaster

Now coming back to war tactics Russia basically shot itself in the foot, And Ukrainian trap to take full control of Russia’s president , General ,Commander of every battalion it was Vladimir Putin

According to British intelligence service Putin was directly involved in the war .he was giving orders to much experienced Army generals . Vladimir Putin has never served in military . Before becoming president he was stationed at east Berlin which was under the influence of soviet communist regime. IN short Soviet Union collapses in 1991 and Putin became the mayor of st’s Petersburg. So if any company national or international company which wants to operate in st’s Petersburg will have to go through Putin. He was corrupt politician right from the beginning of his role as st’s Petersburg mayor to President of Russia which would reshape a country heading to a democratic path to a complete kleptocracy or PUTIN’S kleptocracy. So how its works in Russia , Russian elites which are known widely across the globe as oligarch

THE TARGETS

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Fig.1- Ukrainian army advancing towards Kherson

 

The strategic problem is that Kherson was an island for Russia with the Dnipro river surrounding the city and its corresponding region to the east and the line of control and an counter offensive outnumbering Russian army to the west .

 

In the early stages of war , Russia captured it as a strong foothold to head toward Odesa-a

But the strategy eventually failed, The other goal was to make Black Sea inaccessible for the Ukrainian army through the Dnipro.

 

No matter how many soldiers, highly lethal weapon , missiles using satellite to pinpoint the direction from where the enemy is attacking but above all that what you need is constant supply of meal ,water and weapons which Russians were using to re supply , A lot of that logistics was coming from bridge connecting Odesa-a to Kharkiv

 

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Fig-2 Bridge over Dnipro river  

In the north city of Kharkiv objectives were way more straight forward (Kharkiv with pre-war population of around 1.4 Million) more than half of residents of Kharkiv have evacuated to the western part of Ukrainian such as Lviv and majority of the refugee went to Poland. Poland has thus so far taken more refugee than any other country despite having Poland’s internal challenges

 

Kharkiv was among the first few cities that RUSSIAN TERROR regime bombarded and turned greenish classic European city into piles of derbi. It seems like Russia invaded Ukrainian to completely destroy the infrastructures and terrorise the population ,forcing citizens to take shelter or flee out of the country. However Russian troops were expelled from the area in the outskirts of city immediately back in may but they still had control over large chunks of area to the north and east

IF  YOU HAVE MADE IT THAT YOU CAN SEE THIS QUOTE

PART -2 Drops On Saturday 7PM GMT

YOURS SINCERELY   –SHOBHIT

DONT FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER OR ANYWHERE.

 

THE SPECIAL MASTER (Developing News)

THE SPECIAL MASTER

Donald Trump and DOJ present their suggestion for The SPECIAL MASTER.

The 45th president Donald Trup clinched a victory in the legal battle against DOJ as a judge in Florida granted Trump the right of a third party SPECIAL MASTER as both the sides have suggested The special master of their own choice. Donald trump . The government has proposed former New York federal judge  . Many republican senators have raised a serious concern of “weaponisation of Department of justice” headed by Mary garland.

Merrick Garland Vows Independence As Attorney General | Time

 

Recent indictment of former Trump campaign strategist Steve Bannon and FBI raid at Mar-a-lago has divided the USA even more. Joe Biden campaigned heavily on uniting the country but  recent indictments of Trump associates has led republicans lack of Trust in FBI has eroded even more.

Ty Cobb who served during Trump administration called out The 45th president of united states called him a narcissist in a CBS Podcast. Ty Cobb who was ousted from Trump administration in 2018. He has made several appearances on main stream media since FBI raid on Trump residence.

Recent developments

9th of October -2022-9.40 GMT
Sen. Lindsey Graham threatened to cancel  a meeting with the mother of a Capitol police officer if she didn’t stop criticizing Trump, Claimed in his Book

Are we heading towards recession?  

Inflation. This one word has created a state of panic in almost every sector. Provided it is been the highest recorded inflation rate in 40 Years. To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, and when the Fed starts pumping the brake to fight the inflation. As history has taught us Several times but we humans are doomed to repeat the history


Factors leading into recession

Russian Invasion of Ukraine, ongoing supply-chain disruption due to China’s covid-19 zero-tolerance policy and the end of $ 5 trillion in federal pandemic aid proved to be a catalyst in the already worsening economic crisis.

SLEEPY JOE

Is recession inevitable

Deutsche Bank shared its concern earlier this month by becoming the first major bank to speak about forecasting, albeit a “mild” one. Now, it’s warning of a deeper downturn caused by the Federal Reserve’s quest to battle high inflation

.”We will get a major recession,” Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday.

Bueno Returns stance on the current crisis across every spectrum possible

We have been criticizing the fed’s policy from the day they doubled down on a hike in the interest rate and increased it twice in such a short span. Jerome Powell is chair of the federal bank might not be a fit person to lead the fed during the times we haven’t witnessed in many decades. We have already witnessed Fed increasing interest by half a percentage point which is the highest increase in interest rate in last the 18 years. Now many big players in the town are calling the federal bank for the same as we did in our recent articles.


Geopolitical situation are at their worst

GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS ARE AT THEIR WORST SINCE WW2

Where do we start?  Tense geopolitical situations, food crisis, rising international crude coupled with a very high level of uncertainty in the future. War in Ukraine hasn’t Come any close to any peace deal  and now the world is preparing for another invasion of a sovereign nation Taiwan by China 


While in the US soaring gas prices, food prices and even baby formula has been increasingly difficult to find in US stores.

In Tokyo, Joe Biden met the newly elected leader of Japan. While Addressing the media, When Joe was precisely asked by a journalist “ would you militarily get involved if china invades Taiwan “ Joe Biden replied, “yes, that’s it has been our policy and we are committed to it “.  Getting militarily involved with china means US soldiers stepping foot on Taiwanese soil, which according to the regime in Beijing (CCP) is an integral part of China.

There are some key point points that we can take from the ongoing economic crisis.

 1. When covid spread all over the world, leading to the shutdown of numerous manufacturing jobs but to keep the liquidity in the market. Fed poured in trillions of dollars which resulted in very quick recovery in the Market but this time things are a bit different. Due to soaring high prices in crude as EU  to somewhat and the united state has cut off their reliability on Russian oil. Will the demand in US domestic market will remain high which lead to inflation , tempting fed to be too aggressive with interest rate hikes to control the inflation now it seems it might backfire which would be a catastrophic event  for the economy all over the world 


2. When America sneezes, the world catches a cold. Tension is growing and it is making the market nervous, while in the short term there may be some recovery in the market in the long term, there seems to be little to no light at the end of the tunnel considering the current geopolitical event

 Volatile gold prices and fear of 4th wave

To understand the correlation between USD and Gold prices. first, we have to understand what drives the value of the US dollar 

Factors that Impact currency value 

1.  Falling crude prices

2.  Positive reports on job numbers

3.  Rise in Real state prices 

These are the major factors that determine the strength of dollar value. All the factors mentioned above have a proportional relation with the dollar value’s strength. There are other factors too but we only mentioned the one with the most impact on a currency mainly the USD


Although there is a direct correlation between gold prices and the value of a currency such as the US Dollar, it is not always an inverse relationship as assumed by the general public. Gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies Hedge funds often use gold to tackle inflation.

The real question is why gold prices are falling despite very high volatility in the equity market. As we witnessed when the pandemic hit in the year 2020 we witnessed a rise in the gold price even crossing over 2000 dollars per ounce so why did this time gold mcx fell almost by 8%in last 30 days, dwindling to 1811$. 

THIS CHART  BELOW DEMONSTRATES HOW AFTER THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF A SOVEREIGN COUNTRY UKRAINE HAS CAUSED A DECLINE IN INTERNATIONAL GOLD PRICE  

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(image-courtesy of goldprice.org)

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 Volatile gold prices and fear of 4th wave 11


It is evident in the chart that after Russia’s war on Ukraine coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar, and high inflation rate, The dollar index as of the 13th of may edge higher to 104.47, making gold less attractive

COVID 4TH WAVE?

Global equity markets and commodities like oil and gas were under pressure at the peak of China’s  Covid outbreak when daily cases topped around 33 thousand in a week contributing to fear of a bigger slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Recently there has been a sharp decline in the infection rate as the 7-day average infection rate has come down to 9000 covid cases.  As Shanghai comes closer to the end of the lockdown for a very short period of one week as an experiment to see how it plays out. China has a zero-tolerance policy for covid cases and a history of using draconian laws since the outbreak of covid 19

Conclusion

Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine has Inflated oil and gas prices At the moment there seems to be no solutIon to this conflict. It will impact inflation even worse as some European countries specifically Germany is looking for an alternative oil supplier, as Germany should have realised by now that depending on the Russian regime for energy import to the extent of 60% was an extremely bad policy. There are several factors affecting the equity market. There are talks that the fed is considering an additional hike in interest rate. It’s a risky move as The fed has to keep interest rate in balance. Fed has already increased interest rate thrice. The future of the economy is very uncertain as it depends upon domestic and international outcomes


Elon musk acquires Twitter

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Recent development ,3rd of may 2.15 pm IST

Elon Musk Lately has been in news, magazine, articles, and newspaper. You name it. Musk decision to buy all the shares of  Twitter. According to Musk, he has been witnessing the suppression of free speech, something on social networks a new phenomenon called cancer culture.it has poisoned the Internet,

Elon Musk has said Twitter may charge a “slight” fee for commercial and government users

“Twitter will always be free for casual users, but maybe a slight cost for commercial/government users,” Musk said in a tweet. In another tweet, he added: “Some revenue is better than none!”



 

 

 

RECENT DEVELOPMENT-30th of April

Elon musk has been advocating for free speech on social media platforms. In a filing to the security exchange board (SEC), Musk wrote, “I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy,” further adding to his filing to SEC, “Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.”

In a press statement posted by Musk on his Twitter account, Musk tweeted “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated. I also want to make Twitter better than ever by enhancing the product with new features, making the algorithms open source to increase trust, defeating the spambots, and authenticating all humans. Twitter has tremendous potential – I look forward to working with the company and the community of users to unlock it,”

After weeks of hustle between Twitter’s board of directors, Elon musk finally bought Twitter for a whopping 44 Billion USD. Elon Musk has previously indicated that he wants to take Twitter private. Reportedly there have been conflicting feelings among Twitter employees.

Tesla CEO in his latest public statement said “Free speech is the bedrock of a functioning democracy, and Twitter is the digital town square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated ”. Musk assured the giant social media platform’s users to add new features and bring leniency to content moderation for the Platform users.



PARTISAN BETWEEN REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS OVER TWITTER BUYOUT

Republican lawmakers who have criticized the company over Its content moderation policy lauded  Elon Musk’s buyout of Twitter, while many Democrats shared their concern over the acquisition of Twitter.

 

Senator  Marsha Blackburn (Re: Tennessee.). tweeted “This is a great day to be conservative on Twitter,”. While on the other spectrum, Elizabeth Warren who has been a long time critique billionaire over taxes paid by the billionaires tweeted “it is a danger to democracy”.

  Elon musk tussle with Twitter.

ELON MUSK’S ANOTHER UNPRECEDENTED MOVE

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Update- Friday ,22 April

 

In a new filing with the SEC, Musk said he has procured USD 46 billion to endow his offer of $54.20 a share.

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and several other banks have promised to lend Musk an additional $25.5 billion, against in part by some of Musk’s Tesla shares, according to the filing to SEC.

Musk averred in his filing that Twitter has not yet officially responded to his gratuitous offer. He “is seeking to negotiate a definitive agreement for the acquisition of Twitter,” stated in the filing, “and is prepared to begin such negotiations immediately.”





Elon musk CEO of Tesla Motors,  Chief of space x and the boring company  recently announced that he has bought a 9.2 per cent stake in Twitter, making him the 2nd  largest shareholder in the Company. Paras Aggarwal CEO of Twitter offered musk a seat on the board of directors but musk declined the offer. Elon musk according to his recent statements want to buy 100% of the outstanding shares of the company.

Elon musk’s take over of the company is not sitting well with the board of directors. Musk has offered to acquire Twitter for roughly 43 billion dollars which amounts to 54.20 USD per share .currently Twitter share is trading at around  45 USD. This bid has prompted Twitter to adopt

‘poison pill’ (officially known as shareholders rights plan) to prevent “hostile bid” from musk. A poison pill means when a company issues new additional stock to dilute the ownership of shareholders. Musk may also be willing to pledge his current stake if necessary, a move that could raise several billion additional dollars, according to the New York Post report. The announcement of the poison pill has been approved by the board last Friday while the stock market was closed, Twitter on Monday provided more details in a regulatory filing that no doubt it’s trying to fend off Musk’s $43 billion takeover bid.

When a poison pill is approved by the board of directors Any investor that builds up a stake up to 15 per cent without the board’s approval. If Musk were to increase his stake to the 15% threshold, then The board can grant shareholders as of April 25 the right to buy one-thousandth of a share of preferred stock for each common share they own, for $210, which will make it virtually impossible to acquire total outstanding no of shares of Twitter. Adoption of the poison pill often results in lawsuits against companies accusing that the board is acting against the interest of shareholders to keep their position.

Other private-equity firms have also expressed their interest in participating in a deal for Twitter, people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday without naming the firm.


Goldman Sachs, the prestigious investment bank has advised twitter to not approve the musk’s offer. The board has retained Goldman Sachs to advise in its tussle with Musk.  Musk has retained Morgan Stanley, a rival of Goldman Sachs, as his advisory bank.

Musk tweeted “If the current Twitter board takes actions contrary to shareholder interests, they would be breaching their fiduciary duty,” the billionaire reacted to the press articles on Twitter. “The liability they would thereby assume would be titanic in scale.”

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In a recent interview with Ted talks musk stated that twitter’s algorithm must be open source as it allows transparency between the Platform and the users. He also stated in the same interview that free speech must be allowed on Twitter but hate speeches and other forms of provoking tweets that might result in violence must be moderated the real question is can we rely on AI to determine the nature of tweets.

Lately, musk seems to be very angry at the board of directors, adding to his previous statements “It would be utterly indefensible not to put this offer to a shareholder vote. They own the company, not the board of directors”


SO WHAT ELON MUSK’S NEXT MOVE WOULD BE?

This all now has become a game of high stakes between the world’s richest man and Twitter, with this upcoming week might be an eventful one as we expect to formally hear from both the parties on their next move, With the poison pill making it harder for musk’s takeover of Twitter. It will be challenging for Musk, he may decide to withdraw his bid or make changes to his bid and exercise the still-significant influence he would have on the company as one.

ELON MUASK

es 052418 elon musk is on twitter 1527189506

 

Central bank raises interest rates for the first time since 2018  

Jerome Powell . Chair of central bank of USA

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Equity market is the money, each step taken on wall street is to make a profit. The USA recorded the highest inflation hike at 8.5 per cent. Highest recorded in last 4 decades. The inflation rate is not necessarily bad.it depends on a balance between inflation and a rise in income. if the income is rising shoulder to shoulder with inflation or even higher than the inflation is good for The economy and vice-versa. As we commonly know inflation means a rise in goods prices or services etc. It is important to have a general understanding of inflation. The factor that is causing inflation. . The consumer price index increased by  1.2% YOY taking the inflation rate to the highest levels from a year earlier following a 7.9% annual gain in February. This is the level of inflation highest levels from a year earlier following a 7.9% annual gain in February. Labor Department Made public on Tuesday. This inflation gauge is the biggest gain since 2005  according  to the Latest  numbers from the White House Revealed on Tuesday.

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Inflation is just the decline in the purchasing power of an individual or to be technical inflation is a rise in the consumer price index. What needs to be looked at is how inflation causes a decline in one’s purchasing power but  most  often it results in worsening financial conditions . For example , Say there is a  house listed at 100 dollars but if the inflation rate is at over 15 per cent now the house will cost the individual 115 dollars To purchase the same house provided the individual buys that house when the Housing market inflation is at per cent 15 per cent but the individual income rose by 18 per cent .It indicates that buying power increased and vice Versa (if the income hike rate is way below relative to the inflation rate hike its results in paying more for the same house or any product, services etc .The individual’s income remains the same but the value of his wealth or cash decreases.

OPINION

The whole market depends on demand and supply .supply and demand can be manipulated such as shorting etc. Which has it advantageous  even for Retail investors but with high risk. But the collateral damage is usually  paid by retail investors .We guide you you in investing, managing your portfolio. As managed portfolio by experts have been proven to increase in realised gains


This is why I urge people to to sign up so we can inform you through our sources whats going on in Dalal street behind the closed doors

By the time you read it on Economic times ,business standard etc or business TV channel .ITS AlREADY TOO LATE

US central bank hikes interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018

Chair of bank America  Jerome Powell hiked inflation by 0.25 per cent (25 basis points) to control the skyrocketing inflation. YTD (Year to date) interest rate has been increased by .75%

HERE IS HOW IT WORKS. HOW CENTRAL BANKS DEAL WITH INFLATION

The central bank decides the inflation rate to maintain the balance between debt and income and to keep an eye on which way its tilting. They are supposed to make sure our economy keeps doing well 

Central Bank OF  USA or the Reserve Bank in India  apart from sole Government policies differences  but more or less  national banks work rather in a similar way

RBI is just one authority right ?i do not agree,Their policies effects from rich to the poorest .Think more of RBI as lender and banks as borrower. Reserve bank of India(RBI) lends money to bank and also facilitates overnight borrowing.Banks lend and borrow money from each other on regular basis overlooked by RBI

This chart illustrates the USA national debt vs GDP

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As inflation rate has been rising for at last two years. Indians companies that earn in dollars might be the one to benefit from inflation and subsequent increase in dollar value.

Russian Ukraine conflict pushes gold prices to 16-month highs-sectors most likely to benefit

As of 13th March, gold mcx was trading at 1987$. As the Russia-Ukraine Conflict escalates gold prices are expected to make an all-time

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